Title : Avian influenza in Russia

The article provides a comprehensive review of the epizootic and epidemiological situation regarding highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Russia from 2003 to 2024. It examines the ecological characteristics of the pathogen, transmission routes and factors, and the significance of wild bird fauna and domestic poultry as reservoirs and participants in epizootic processes. An analysis of literature on large-scale outbreaks in birds over the past two decades is conducted, identifying the main virus subtypes (H5N1, H5N8), and a map of outbreak locations is compiled. Using the MaxEnt spatial modeling method, the potential geographic range of the disease is created, and a forecast of its possible changes by the end of the 21st century due to global climate change is performed. Based on the modeling, zones of statistically significant change in susceptibility to avian influenza have been identified: Central Russia and the northern part of Asiatic Russia. The scientific novelty of this study lies in the comprehensive analysis of contemporary epizootiological and ecological features of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus circulation in Russia, incorporating data from the last two decades, as well as the use of climate model data to predict possible future changes in the disease's range. It is concluded that monitoring in the identified zones and the application of integrated scientific approaches are necessary for effectively combating threats posed by avian influenza in Russia.

Ekaterina Zueva is a PhD student at the Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University and Beijing Institute of Technology in Shenzhen. Her research focuses on medical geography, spatial modeling of zoonotic diseases, and the impact of climate change on disease distribution. She specializes in GIS and ecological niche modeling for infectious disease risk assessment.